Crop choices from 1889 reveal risk preferences that predict tractor adoption decades later.

How much risk were people willing to take in the distant past? Researchers wanted to measure this, but historical records rarely state risk preferencesrisk preferencesA measure of how much a person dislikes uncertainty and is willing to avoid it. directly. To solve this, the researchers treated a farmer's crop choice like an investment portfolio. They combined a model of crop choice with machine learning to predict expected crop returns using historic climate and agronomicagronomicRelating to the science of soil management and crop production. data. They tested this across United States counties and for Kansas farmers between 1889 and 1929. They found that more risk averse farmers borrowed less money, were less likely to buy new World War I Liberty Bonds, and joined local risk-sharing groups more often. In the 1920s, higher risk aversion also predicted slower tractor adoption and farm mechanization.

Why it matters

This method lets historians measure something usually invisible: how much risk people were willing to take over a century ago. It shows that risk aversion directly slowed the adoption of tractors and farm mechanization in the 1920s, independent of wealth or access. Understanding these preferences helps explain why some communities embraced new technology while others held back.

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