Original title: Statistics of Temperature Extremes and Implications for Electrical Power Infrastructure in Continental France
Peter Werner, Bastien Cozian, Yoann Robin, Laurent Dubus +1 · August 2026
Extreme heat poses major risks to the equipment that supplies our electricity. To see what continental France might face, researchers modeled extreme high temperatures from 1850 to 2099. They combined real historical measurements with climate simulations. Using extreme value statistics—a mathematical tool built to calculate the odds of rare, severe events—they mapped out the highest possible yearly heat at any spot across the country, along with margin-of-error estimates. They found that by 2080, under a high emissions pathway, the southwest region of Occitanie could statistically reach up to 57°C. That is hotter than any other region in continental France. The team also showed that France’s official climate adaptation trajectory might underestimate peak heat, possibly missing maximum temperatures by up to +8°C. Finally, they examined five reference electrical power sites to learn how these intense temperature extremes could affect them.
You are responsible for making sure the town's power grid can handle a heatwave. You look at the hottest day ever recorded to decide how much extra capacity you need, but the climate is changing, so the next heatwave could be much worse than anything in the past. In this paper, the researchers use computer simulations and historical data to predict future temperature extremes, and they show that some regions in France could reach 57°C, which is hotter than current adaptation plans assume.
Electrical power grids in France are built to withstand certain temperature extremes. This study shows those extremes could be much higher than expected—up to 57°C in some regions and 8°C above official adaptation plans. That means power lines, transformers, and other infrastructure might face conditions they were never designed for, risking failures during heatwaves.
The study does not quantify the probability of the 57°C extreme, only that it is statistically possible. It does not assess the actual vulnerability of power infrastructure or propose specific adaptations. The results are limited to continental France and the specific climate scenarios considered.
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Statistics of Temperature Extremes and Implications for Electrical Power Infrastructure in Continental France — Peter Werner, Bastien Cozian, Yoann Robin et al.
Abstract licence: CC0
Explanation generated by Synthesis from the abstract — it is not the original paper. This is a preprint, so it hasn't necessarily been peer reviewed.