A lottery for elite schools could raise South Korea's birth rate by 0.24 per couple.

South Korea faces the lowest fertility in the world alongside a fierce education race. Families spend nine percent of lifetime income on schooling, mostly on private tutoring that yields near-zero measured returns. A researcher modeled this problem to see why having children became so hard. When every parent pays more for tutoring, the score needed to enter top careers rises. This rat race makes raising children very costly. The researcher tested policy changes in the model. Replacing score-based admission with a capacity-preserving lotterycapacity-preserving lotteryA random selection process that admits the same number of students as the current system. increases completed fertility by 0.24 children per couple. Direct pronatal payments produce only one eighth of that gain. Taxes on education provide almost nothing. Finally, changing personal preferences, rather than an intensifying race, explain the drop across cohorts.

Why it matters

South Korea has the world's lowest birth rate, and families spend heavily on education with little payoff. This research shows that the competition itself is a key driver of low fertility. Replacing test-based admissions with a lottery could boost fertility more than direct cash payments or education taxes, offering a new policy angle.

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