Original title: Prosumer Synchronisation Risk: Impacts of Time-Varying Tariffs on Distribution Network Expansion
Dillon Zadoks, Alfredo Oneto, Carlo Tajoli, Yi Guo +3 · September 2026
Electric grids face strain as more people use solar panels, batteries, heat pumps, and electric cars. Power companies want to use time-varying tariffsElectricity prices that change at different times of day to encourage people to use power when it's cheaper., which are prices that change throughout the day, to reward people for using power during quiet hours. Researchers studied this by modeling 471 local power grids in Switzerland using predictions for 2050. When electricity prices drop, many prosumers—people who both make and use energy—rush to use power at the exact same time. This synchronisation avoids old peak hours but accidentally creates new, harmful demand spikes. The researchers found that changing to these tariffs can cut grid upgrade costs by more than 50%. However, if too many people sign up, new peaks form, causing the cost of needed grid upgrades to shoot back up.
Imagine a city where everyone is told to avoid rush hour by leaving home at 10 AM instead. At first, traffic spreads out and roads are less congested. But if too many people follow the advice, 10 AM becomes the new rush hour, and traffic jams are just as bad. In this paper, the same thing happens with electricity: when too many homes shift their usage to the same off-peak time, they create a new peak that requires expensive grid upgrades.
For utilities and regulators, this means designing time-varying tariffs is not straightforward: encouraging adoption can backfire if too many households respond simultaneously. The risk of synchronization could erase the benefits of flexible pricing and lead to higher costs for everyone. Understanding these thresholds is crucial for planning future grid investments.
The study focuses on Swiss low-voltage networks and specific tariff designs (ToU and RTP). Results may not generalize to other regions with different grid structures or DER adoption patterns. The model assumes prosumers optimize costs perfectly, which may not reflect real behavior. The analysis does not consider other demand-side management strategies or dynamic tariff adjustments.
Ask anything about this paper. Answers come from its abstract, and say so when the abstract doesn't cover your question.
Prosumer Synchronisation Risk: Impacts of Time-Varying Tariffs on Distribution Network Expansion — Dillon Zadoks, Alfredo Oneto, Carlo Tajoli et al.
Abstract licence: CC0
Explanation generated by Synthesis from the abstract — it is not the original paper. This is a preprint, so it hasn't necessarily been peer reviewed.