Original title: The U.S. Interconnection Queue System: Cascading Vulnerability Analysis and a Resilience Engineering Framework
Zahra Heidari · September 2026
To connect new power plants and energy storage to the electrical grid, companies must join a waiting line called an interconnection queue. Most never make it out. Only 13% of queued capacity from 2000-2020 has actually reached operation. The problem is a chain reaction. When one project drops out, the grid operator must recalculate upgrade costs and pass those bills to the remaining projects nearby. Suddenly facing higher costs, more projects quit. The researchers modeled these queues as complex networks to see how cancellations spread. They discovered that project dropouts cluster together in sudden, huge bursts rather than trickling out randomly. When connection interdependencies become too high, small shocks trigger runaway collapses where nearly all connected projects fail. However, the system does not have to be so fragile. Capping the extra costs passed to neighboring projects stops these chain reactions and protects surviving projects.
Imagine a group of friends deciding to go to a popular concert. Everyone needs to buy a ticket, and the tickets are selling out fast. If one friend hears that the concert might be canceled or that ticket prices are going up unexpectedly, they might decide not to buy a ticket. This might make another friend nervous, thinking they should also wait or reconsider. In this paper, the 'concert' is connecting to the power grid, and the 'friends' are the new power projects. When one project faces issues and withdraws, it can create uncertainty and trigger other projects to withdraw too, especially if they share costs or study information.
The U.S. needs more power generation and storage to meet demand and transition to clean energy. If new projects are more likely to fail because others are failing, it slows down this essential development and can lead to higher energy costs.
The abstract does not specify the exact nature of the 'stylized network contagion simulation' beyond its use for cost-sharing interdependencies and circuit-breaker interventions. It also does not detail the specific criteria for project withdrawal beyond 'restudy and cost reallocation'.
Ask anything about this paper. Answers come from its abstract, and say so when the abstract doesn't cover your question.
The U.S. Interconnection Queue System: Cascading Vulnerability Analysis and a Resilience Engineering Framework — Zahra Heidari
Abstract licence: CC0
Explanation generated by Synthesis from the abstract — it is not the original paper. This is a preprint, so it hasn't necessarily been peer reviewed.