Original title: Effective tumor kinetics inferred from single routine H&E biopsies enable counterfactual virtual radiotherapy trials
Pirmin Schlicke, Caner Ercan, Sara Ranjbar, Ashlee Seldomridge +19 · September 2026
Standard tumor biopsies show cell patterns at one moment in time, but doctors cannot easily tell how fast the cancer cells spread or multiply. Researchers developed a way to uncover these hidden movements from a single routine biopsy slide. They measured the spatial layout of cell nuclei and matched them to physics-based equations that describe cell movement and multiplication. This revealed how quickly tumor cells grow and diffuse. These measurements successfully sorted patients by survival outcomes better than standard methods alone. The team then ran simulated radiation treatments on computer models of brain tumors. Giving personalized radiation based on whether a tumor grew fast or slow added 96.7 days of disease-free survival over standard care in their simulation.
Imagine you see a single photo of a crowded street and want to know how fast people are moving and how quickly new people join the crowd. Normally you'd need a video to see motion, but this photo only shows positions at one moment. Here, the photo is the biopsy, the crowd is the tumor cells, and the mathematical model acts like a physicist who can deduce motion from a single snapshot using patterns in the positions. The model calculates how the crowd would evolve over time, giving growth speed and spread rate.
Doctors could personalize radiotherapy doses based on a tumor's actual growth rate, inferred from a single standard biopsy. In computer simulations for glioblastoma, this approach added nearly 100 days of progression-free survival over standard treatment. It turns existing pathology slides into actionable predictions without extra tests.
The abstract does not explicitly discuss limitations, but the results are based on counterfactual simulations rather than real patient outcomes, and the method is demonstrated only for glioblastoma. Further validation in clinical trials is needed.
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Effective tumor kinetics inferred from single routine H&E biopsies enable counterfactual virtual radiotherapy trials — Pirmin Schlicke, Caner Ercan, Sara Ranjbar et al. — medRxiv — doi:10.64898/2026.09.10.26362768
Abstract licence: CC BY
Explanation generated by Synthesis from the abstract — it is not the original paper. This is a preprint, so it hasn't necessarily been peer reviewed.