Original title: Recent global trends in the prevalence and incidence of dementia, and survival with dementia
The review gathers studies that tracked dementia over time, looking at how many people had it, how many new cases appeared, and how long people lived with it. Some evidence suggests new cases may be declining in high-income countries. But people may also be living longer with dementia, and the studies do not give a clear overall trend in how many people have it. The authors say population ageing is still likely to drive most future growth in dementia care needs.
Imagine a town tracking how many people need help with daily tasks. More older residents could mean more people need help, even if the chance for each person stays the same. But if fewer people start needing help while those who do need it live longer, the total number may not fall. In this paper, the town’s growing older population matches population ageing, while new cases and survival help explain how the total number of people with dementia may change.
Population ageing is expected to drive much of the future need for dementia care, but changes in new cases and survival could shift that need. The review advises policymakers to plan using current projections while tracking trends and supporting brain health and dementia prevention.
The evidence does not settle how dementia prevalence will change over time: studies disagree, and mortality trends have been little studied. The review also cannot remove uncertainty about future epidemic scale or establish whether East Asia's reported increase reflects changing risk factors, diagnostic criteria, or both.
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Recent global trends in the prevalence and incidence of dementia, and survival with dementia — Martin James Prince, Gemma‐Claire Ali, Maëlenn Guerchet et al. — Alzheimer s Research & Therapy — doi:10.1186/s13195-016-0188-8
Abstract licence: CC BY
Explanation generated by Synthesis from the abstract — it is not the original paper.