Original title: Multi-factor assessment of future climate hazards to apple production across Switzerland’s growing regions
The researchers assess four climate risks to apple growing in Switzerland: summer heat, summer drought, spring frost, and too little winter chill. They combine fine-scale climate and water data into an index that separates the hazard itself from how vulnerable apple-growing systems are to it. Heat and spring frost are the main hazards, but heat is expected to rise while frost falls. Under moderate emissions, close to half of Swiss apple production would avoid high hazard by the end of the century.
Imagine tending an orchard through changing seasons. A warm summer can stress the trees, while a late frost can damage them; one risk can grow even as the other fades. In this paper, the changing seasons stand for climate hazards, and the orchard’s ability to cope represents how vulnerable apple-growing systems are.
Swiss apple growers face hazards that do not all move in the same direction: heat risk rises while frost risk falls. The emissions path and growing region help determine which hazard dominates, and the assessment estimates that moderate emissions could keep close to half of production out of high hazard by the end of the century.
The abstract assesses climate hazards for apple-growing regions in Switzerland, not other crops or places. It does not report specific regional results, uncertainty ranges, or how growers could adapt. Its conclusion about avoiding high hazard depends on the emissions scenario and region.
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Multi-factor assessment of future climate hazards to apple production across Switzerland’s growing regions — Laurent Giguere, Rachael Devorah Garrett, Graham J. Dow — Scientific Reports — doi:10.1038/s41598-026-74000-w
Abstract licence: CC BY
Explanation generated by Synthesis from the abstract — it is not the original paper.