Original title: Evolution of Wheat Production in Morocco: Historical Trends, Climatic Drivers, and Future Food Security Outlook (1990–2045)
The study tracks wheat production in Morocco and projects how much wheat the country may need to import or otherwise make up. National production rose over the period studied, but the model projects the food-supply gap growing by 2045. The area planted with wheat was a stronger statistical predictor of production than fertilizer use. Calculations suggest closing the projected gap would take much less extra cropland with irrigation than without it.
Imagine planning meals for a household whose appetite is growing while the garden’s harvest depends on the weather. The hard part is that planting more may help, but a dry season can leave much of the extra ground unproductive unless you can water it. In this paper, the household’s unmet need matches Morocco’s wheat deficit, while the garden’s land and access to water match the cropland and irrigation considered in the calculations.
Wheat is a key part of Morocco’s food supply, but demand is growing while production is exposed to drought and heat. The projections show the gap widening, and the land needed to close it depends sharply on whether crops are irrigated—an important difference for farmers and food planners.
The analysis relies mainly on national-scale statistics and linear relationships. Its land requirements are theoretical calculations, not proof that the extra cropland or irrigation can be made available. The abstract notes that finer-resolution data, other modeling approaches, and explicit consideration of water availability could refine the assessment.
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Evolution of Wheat Production in Morocco: Historical Trends, Climatic Drivers, and Future Food Security Outlook (1990–2045) — Noura Ed-dahmany, Mohamed Amine Lachkham, Lahouari Bounoua et al. — Land — doi:10.3390/land15101903
Abstract licence: CC BY
Explanation generated by Synthesis from the abstract — it is not the original paper.