When death rates rise, suicide rates fall—even during a pandemic.

Why do suicide rates rise in the spring and fall in the autumn? In 1952, psychiatrist Erwin Stengel suggested that suicide becomes rarer when overall death is more common and society values life less. In Canada, suicide rates and overall death rates normally move in opposite directions across the seasons. Researchers modeled weekly Canadian data from 2010 to 2019 to see how these rates link together. They found that when the death rate went up, the suicide rate dropped. During the 2020 pandemic, extra deaths hit at an unusual time, breaking normal seasonal patterns. As predicted, suicide rates dropped at the exact time death rates spiked. The team suggests that higher death rates in colder seasons come from increases in communicable illnesses and cardiovascular diseases like heart attacks. These extra deaths may lower suicide rates, possibly by directly removing vulnerable people from the population first.

Why it matters

Understanding why suicide rates drop when death rates rise could reshape suicide prevention strategies. If non-suicide deaths remove potential suicides from the population, then periods of high mortality might temporarily lower suicide risk. This challenges assumptions about when people are most vulnerable and could guide when to deploy mental health resources.

Questions answered