Prison construction reduces Republican vote share in nearby counties.

Between 1980 and 2000, the United States opened over 400 prisons. Few people had studied how building these prisons affected the political choices of nearby residents. To find out, researchers created a model linking prison openings to local economic, attitudinal, and voting outcomes. They then tracked county-level data across forty years of prison construction. They found that building a prison decreases the county-level vote share for Republican candidates. This backlash is especially strong if Republicans represented the county when the facility was built. Why does this happen? The researchers argue that local voters face negative economic side effects from the prisons. As a result, voters punish Republicans—the party tied to these policies—and turn against funding future prison bond measures.

Why it matters

For decades, politicians assumed building prisons was a popular law-and-order move. This study shows the opposite: communities near new prisons punish the party that built them, especially Republicans. That changes how we think about the politics of mass incarceration and why some communities resist prison expansion.

Questions answered