Original title: Peace or Push? Understanding Global Patterns of Refugee Return
Mae MacDonald · September 2026
Most refugee crises end when people return home. The standard view assumes refugees wait for peace before heading back. This study tests that idea using a new global dataset. The author found that reality works very differently: most refugees actually return home while war is still ongoing, and many stay abroad long after conflicts end. Instead of safety at home driving decisions, conditions where refugees currently live push them back. Return rates jump when host countries treat refugees poorly with exclusion policies, when conflict breaks out in those host nations, or when international aid from the United Nations refugee agency makes the trip back cheaper. Overall, host countries and aid groups shape return far more than expected.
Imagine you are staying at a friend's house because your own home is being renovated. You plan to move back once the renovation is done. But you find that you actually move back earlier when your friend starts charging you rent or when the renovation company offers to pay for your moving costs. In this paper, refugees are like you staying at a friend's, and the renovation is the conflict at home. The friend's behavior (asylum country policies) and the moving company's offer (UNHCR assistance) can push or pull refugees back even before the renovation is complete.
This challenges the assumption that refugees only go home when it is safe. It means policies in host countries and funding for repatriation programs can drive returns even during war. For refugees stuck in limbo, this could shift how aid agencies and governments plan for durable solutions.
The abstract does not state limitations, but the dataset relies on reported returns which may still have undercounts, and the analysis identifies correlations rather than causal mechanisms.
Ask anything about this paper. Answers come from its abstract, and say so when the abstract doesn't cover your question.
Peace or Push? Understanding Global Patterns of Refugee Return — Mae MacDonald — SocArXiv — doi:10.31235/osf.io/e37us_v1
Abstract licence: CC BY
Explanation generated by Synthesis from the abstract — it is not the original paper. This is a preprint, so it hasn't necessarily been peer reviewed.