Original title: ANTHROPOLOGY, COMPLEXITY AND THE LIMITS OF TOP-DOWN CONFLICT ANALYSIS
Eleonora Zanetti · September 2026
Outside experts often try to understand violence using neat, outside labels. They also treat local communities as isolated bubbles. This causes a big problem: it hides the real power struggles that shape local life. To fix this, the author studied Rendille pastoralists, who are livestock herders in northern Kenya, over a long period. Instead of treating the community as closed off, the author looked at how the people living there define violence and power themselves. These local forms of power include physical force, symbolic power, and controlling information. The author found that resource disputes, ethnic fighting, cattle raids, politics, and cross-border events are separate issues, but they heavily influence one another. When something shifts in one area, it changes how conflicts are handled in another. Broader economic and ecological pressures also reshape these local relations. Real complexity comes from these changing relationships across time and scales.
Imagine you are trying to fix a leak in your kitchen. You look only at the pipe under the sink and replace it. But the leak might be caused by high water pressure from the street, or a neighbor's construction shaking the building. If you only focus on the local pipe, you miss the larger system. Here, the paper argues that conflict analysis often does the same thing—it treats a local conflict as an isolated problem when it is actually shaped by broader political and economic forces.
When aid groups or peacekeepers analyze a conflict, they often assume the local community is a separate, self-contained world. This paper shows that what happens locally is shaped by forces like national politics, global economies, and historical power shifts. Ignoring these connections means interventions can fail or even make things worse. Understanding how power flows across scales could lead to more effective and respectful conflict resolution.
The abstract does not specify limitations, but it presents a methodological proposal based on a single ethnographic case study of Rendille pastoralists. It does not test the proposed approach against alternatives or demonstrate improved outcomes. The generalizability to other conflicts is not established, and the practical steps for implementing the emic-to-complexity pathway are not detailed.
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ANTHROPOLOGY, COMPLEXITY AND THE LIMITS OF TOP-DOWN CONFLICT ANALYSIS — Eleonora Zanetti — SocArXiv — doi:10.31235/osf.io/kh2uc_v1
Abstract licence: CC BY
Explanation generated by Synthesis from the abstract — it is not the original paper. This is a preprint, so it hasn't necessarily been peer reviewed.