Original title: Geographic Diversity and the Strategic Placement of Immigrant Candidates
Verena Fetscher, Ilayda Yücel · September 2026
People with immigrant backgrounds often lack equal representation in national parliaments. Many experts think political parties view these candidates as election risks, running them mainly in races they cannot win. Researchers tested a different idea: parties may run these candidates where demographic diversity offers a strategic chance to win votes. Studying every candidate in German federal elections from 2002 to 2025, they found that parties run more immigrant-background candidates in areas with larger immigrant populations, particularly in close, competitive races. This tactic can produce electoral gains, though the overall effect is limited. The strongest benefit appears through Turkish voters supporting Turkish candidates, and these gains mostly help the Social Democratic Party, which has long-standing ties to voters with Turkish roots.
Imagine a school principal deciding which teachers to assign to which classes. Normally, they might put new teachers in the least important classes to avoid risk. But if a class has many students from a particular country, the principal might assign a teacher from that country to connect better. In this paper, political parties decide where to run candidates whose families came from another country. They are more likely to run them in districts with many immigrant voters, especially competitive ones, because they think it can win votes.
This matters because it challenges the common assumption that immigrant-background candidates are only placed in unwinnable contests. It shows that parties strategically nominate them in districts with large immigrant populations, especially competitive ones, seeing electoral opportunity. However, the electoral gains are limited and concentrated in Turkish co-ethnic dynamics and the Social Democratic Party.
The abstract notes that the electoral benefits are limited and concentrated in Turkish co-ethnic dynamics and the Social Democratic Party. It does not establish whether these patterns hold for other immigrant groups or parties, nor does it identify the exact mechanisms behind the strategic placement. The study is observational and cannot rule out alternative explanations.
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Geographic Diversity and the Strategic Placement of Immigrant Candidates — Verena Fetscher, Ilayda Yücel — SocArXiv — doi:10.31235/osf.io/kmpce_v2
Abstract licence: CC BY
Explanation generated by Synthesis from the abstract — it is not the original paper. This is a preprint, so it hasn't necessarily been peer reviewed.