Original title: Can Ethnic Divisions Explain Poor Economic Growth in Resource Rich Countries? The Case of the Middle East
Sinem Acar-Burkay · September 2026
Many countries with lots of natural resources still suffer from poor economic growth. Researchers wanted to know why this happens, especially in Middle Eastern countries. They wondered if ethnic diversity—meaning a population split into many different ethnic groups—might play a part. To test this, the researchers expanded an established economic growth model. They tested whether the impact of natural resources on a country's growth changes based on how divided its population is. Their test showed that it does. The "resource curseThe paradox that countries with abundant natural resources often grow more slowly than those without.," where having abundant natural wealth actually hurts growth, only hits countries with divided ethnic groups. It does not harm ethnically unified nations. In short, having natural wealth leads to weak growth when a nation is divided by ethnicity.
Imagine two neighbors each inherit a large vegetable garden. One tends it alone and harvests well; the other shares it with arguing relatives who each want different crops, and the garden goes to waste. In this paper, the garden is a country's natural resources, and the arguing relatives are its ethnic groups. The resources only become a burden when the family is divided.
Countries rich in oil and minerals often struggle to grow, and this points to ethnic divisions as a key reason. When ethnic groups are many, resource wealth can backfire; when society is more uniform, it may help. That changes how we should think about economic policy in resource-rich regions.
The abstract doesn't specify the exact countries, time period, or measure of ethnic fractionalization. It also doesn't report effect sizes or statistical significance. The cross-country design cannot establish causality. The Middle East focus may not generalize to other regions.
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Can Ethnic Divisions Explain Poor Economic Growth in Resource Rich Countries? The Case of the Middle East — Sinem Acar-Burkay — SocArXiv — doi:10.31235/osf.io/mkq3e_v1
Abstract licence: CC BY
Explanation generated by Synthesis from the abstract — it is not the original paper. This is a preprint, so it hasn't necessarily been peer reviewed.