Original title: Identifying a Conflict’s Cause: The Theme-Enablers Framework
Moorthy Muthuswamy · September 2026
Figuring out what actually starts an ideological conflict is tough. Researchers often confuse the true cause with the downstream effects it creates. To fix this, researchers built the Theme-Enablers FrameworkA method that separates a conflict's main idea, the institutions that support it, and the goals they push.. It breaks a conflict down into three distinct, measurable pieces: the guiding idea, the institutions that support it, and the agendas they push. By separating these parts, researchers can test what truly drives the conflict rather than just looking at what it causes. When tested across multiple regions and countries, the method revealed a key root cause: religious leaders use the platform of Sharia to radicalize communities and secure political power. This gives policymakers a clearer way to see the real roots of violence.
Imagine trying to figure out why a plant is wilting. You might blame the yellow leaves, but the real cause could be overwatering or poor soil. If you only treat the leaves, the plant keeps wilting. In this paper, the yellow leaves are like the conflict's visible effects, and the soil and water are like the religious leaders and their platform—the root cause.
For policymakers and conflict analysts, this framework separates the root cause of ideology-driven conflicts from its symptoms. Instead of treating violence or instability as the cause, it reveals that religious leaders using Sharia to radicalize and gain power is the true driver. This shifts how we design interventions—targeting the platform and leaders rather than just the violence.
The abstract doesn't explicitly state limitations, but it notes the framework is generalizable only to ideology-driven conflicts for which comparable societal-level data on themes, enablers, and agendas can be assembled. It is tested on Islamist movements and out-of-sample data from specific countries, so applicability to other contexts is not established.
Ask anything about this paper. Answers come from its abstract, and say so when the abstract doesn't cover your question.
Identifying a Conflict’s Cause: The Theme-Enablers Framework — Moorthy Muthuswamy — SocArXiv — doi:10.31235/osf.io/qbv4w_v3
Abstract licence: CC BY
Explanation generated by Synthesis from the abstract — it is not the original paper. This is a preprint, so it hasn't necessarily been peer reviewed.