Original title: Aid Cuts and the Subnational Foundations of Refugee Cooperation
Mae MacDonald · September 2026
Hosting refugees brings heavy local costs, which foreign aid often offsets through jobs, public services, and other benefits. These perks build the local support needed to keep hosting programs going. To see what happens when that money vanishes, a researcher studied Kenya during foreign aid cuts in 2025. They checked how people reacted using national surveys, experiments, panel tracking near Kakuma refugee camp, and interviews. The study found that support for hosting refugees dropped in host regions compared to the rest of the country during the peak of the cuts. Inside those communities, support fell most among households that directly lost aid-funded jobs or services. Meanwhile, overall national support did not change, showing that local backing depends heavily on sustained aid.
Imagine you agree to take in a neighbor's noisy furniture while they move, because they pay you to do so. That payment covers the inconvenience. Then one day they stop paying. You might decide the noise isn't worth it anymore and ask them to take their furniture back. In this paper, the neighbor's furniture is the refugees, the payment is foreign aid, and the local community is the person who bears the cost. When the aid stops, local support for hosting refugees drops.
When wealthy countries cut aid to regions that host refugees, the local residents who bear the costs of asylum lose their reason to support it. This can weaken the entire international refugee system, because national governments rely on these communities to cooperate. The findings warn that withdrawing aid doesn't just hurt budgets—it can unravel the political agreement that makes refugee protection possible.
The study focuses on one country and one aid cut, so it cannot show whether the same pattern holds elsewhere. It also cannot prove that the aid cuts caused the decline in support, only that they coincided. Additionally, the effect might be specific to the aid programs that provided jobs and services near Kakuma, and might not apply to other types of foreign aid.
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Aid Cuts and the Subnational Foundations of Refugee Cooperation — Mae MacDonald — SocArXiv — doi:10.31235/osf.io/xvgtn_v2
Abstract licence: CC BY
Explanation generated by Synthesis from the abstract — it is not the original paper. This is a preprint, so it hasn't necessarily been peer reviewed.